Several years ago I was involved in a project using a computer program known as a neural network. Studying patterns which occur with even-money bets in several casino table games, I became fascinated with patterns occurring in these games and began to zero in on identifying and betting patterns of decisions. In examining patterns, the program looked at and tested many different patterns, but zeroed in on just a few of the most important types of patterns that can be identified by observing the outcomes of just a few decisions.
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As a result of using the neural net, several very powerful strategies were developed for winning at roulette, craps, and baccarat. These strategies are just as powerful now as they were then, and if you would like to learn more about them, The Neural Strategy uses pattern theory as a means of winning at craps, roulette, and baccarat.
Four major attributes of all patterns were examined:
These are examined in greater detail below:
We all know that no matter how unlikely an event may be, there are times when it will occur. The program examined all patterns of decisions and identified repeating patterns of decisions, alternating patterns of decisions, and such unusual patterns as paired doublets as the most common patterns that we humans would recognize as a pattern. If we were recording decisions in a roulette game, with a "b" representing a black decision and a "r" representing a red decision, we could represent these patterns as follows:
REPEATING PATTERN: b b b b b b
ALTERNATING PATTERN: b r b r b r
PAIRED DOUBLETS: b b r r b b r r
Incidentally, these patterns were also identified as the most common types of patterns occurring which will affect a player's wagering strategy.
Having zeroed in on the patterns that it found significant, the program next explored the length or duration of each pattern. This is important, because if each of the identified patterns was of extremely short duration, then it would be of little use in attempting to "bet the pattern" and gain an advantage in the game. Analysis showed that for a significant amount of the time, an identified pattern would be of five to seven decisions in duration, with the exception of Paired Doublets. The computer "threw up its electronic hands" on this pattern and refused to find any optimal length for this pattern.
If patterns occur very infrequently, then they are of little use in attempting to overcome the house advantage. On the other hand, if the identified patterns occur fairly frequently, then gearing our betting to a recognized pattern can be an enormous benefit. In checking for pattern frequency, the neural network concluded the following:
1. A great deal of reliance can be placed on a Repeating Pattern or an Alternating Pattern in the games of roulette and baccarat. Only a moderate level of reliability was found for these patterns with craps.
2. The Paired Doublet Pattern could be treated the same as a Repeating Pattern for all of the casino games. In other words, if the Paired Pattern is recognized, then we may treat it the same way as the Repeating one.
3. The reliability of betting these patterns is highest in roulette, followed by baccarat, with craps coming in last.