The Gambler's Fallacy

Many gamblers place wagers based on a poor grasp of the law of averages. They believe that because an event has not occurred for a while that it is due.

The Gambler's Fallacy

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The Gambler's Fallacy

Back off Wagering

In one incident, when I first started playing roulette, I came up to a table and starting watching before I began wagering. One man was wagering on red, which showed three times in a row while I was watching. I exchanged my cash for chips and starting betting black since I knew that long streaks of a single repeating number are fairly rare. I wagered $5 on black, feeling somewhat superior to the man who keeps wagering on red. Red showed again. Next spin I wagered $10 on black, feeling more confident that black was "due" to show. The ball landed on red again.

I continued to double my wagers until I had lost six bets in a row. At this point, I backed off and watched as red showed on eleven consecutive spins.

If I had not backed off wagering I would have run into the house betting limit before I eventually won a bet.

The Gambler's Fallacy

There are a couple of lessons to be learned here. First, no number or event is ever due in a game of chance. This includes all wagers in the games of roulette, craps, and baccarat. We will talk about bet selection a lot on this website, as it will become an integral part of the Gambling Roulette Strategy. However, in general, bucking the trend is not a good idea. The trend is your friend in roulette just like it is when playing the stock market.

The second lesson is that it often pays to be flexible in selecting your wagers in roulette. Gambling probability is defined as the "likelihood" of an event occurring. It does not mean "definite" and it certainly doesn't mean that the event will happen on the next spin or even the next two or three spins.