The Gambler's Fallacy

Many gamblers place wagers based on a poor grasp of the law of averages. They believe that because an event has not occurred for a while that it is due.

Back off Wagering

In one incident, when I first started playing roulette, I came up to a table and starting watching before I began wagering. One man was wagering on red, which showed three times in a row while I was watching. I exchanged my cash for chips and starting betting black since I knew that long streaks of a single repeating number are fairly rare. I wagered $5 on black, feeling somewhat superior to the man who keeps wagering on red. Red showed again. Next spin I wagered $10 on black, feeling more confident that black was "due" to show. The ball landed on red again.

I continued to double my wagers until I had lost six bets in a row. At this point, I backed off and watched as red showed on eleven consecutive spins.

If I had not backed off wagering I would have run into the house betting limit before I eventually won a bet.